2008 Schedule: Looking Forward

If anyone doubts that the game versus Cincinnati was of the "must win" variety, they need only look at how the Steelers have fared against their next five opponents (including playoffs):

1. New England:
   • 13-11 all-time
   • 3-3 at New England
   • Most recent road win was December 13, 1997 (24-21 in OT)
   • 1-6 in their last seven meetings overall


2. Dallas:
   • 14-15 all-time
   • 7-6 in Pittsburgh
   • Most recent win in Pittsburgh was September 4, 1988 (24-21)
   • 1-4 in their last five games overall


3. Baltimore:
   • 15-10 all-time
   • 6-6 at Baltimore
   • 0-5 at Baltimore in their last five games


4. Tennessee:
   • Including games versus the Houston Oilers, the Steelers are 41-29 all-time
   • Including games versus the Houston Oilers, the Steelers are 17-19 on the road against this franchise
   • Since the Oilers moved to Tennessee (1997) the Steelers are 1-7 in the last eight games
   • Their most recent road win versus the Titans was November 25, 2001 (34-24).


5. Cleveland:
   • 58-55 all-time
   • 36-21 at Pittsburgh
   • 10 straight wins overall
   • 16 wins in their last 17 meetings
   • Most recent loss was at home, October 5, 2003 (13-33).

To say that it is a tough stretch ~ perhaps the toughest of the entire season ~ is something of an understatement. Making it all the more daunting is the comparative ease of Baltimore's schedule. Given that fact, it would seem that the Steelers have to do no worse than 3-2 in their next five to have any chance of making the playoffs (unless of course teams like Indianapolis implode, in which case the Wild Card becomes a possibility for Pittsburgh).

So let's hope the Steelers' players rest well for the next week, because there will be no rest for the weary the remainder of this season.

Cincinnati v. Steelers:The Good, the Bad, the Ugly

Normally we utilize a very standard template ~ good stuff, bad stuff, ugly stuff ~ but for this game we are turning the whole thing upside down; and would like to begin by highlighting a portion of Mike Tomlin's post game press conference:

The Ugly

1. Question: It seemed like the punting was a problem tonight . . .
   
   Mike Tomlin: It was horrible.
   
   Question: Will you look at that situation?
   
   Mike Tomlin: We'll address it.
   
   Now we would like to repeat a portion of our post game analysis from last week:
   
   "Paul Ernster has to go.
   
   Four kicks, a 31.0 yard average, and a net of 30.8 yards. His average is tied for lowest so far this weekend (with only the Monday evening game remaining), and his net is the second lowest (Indianapolis punter Hunter Smith had a single punt with a net of 16 yards). He has done a good job holding for field goals, but his fourth quarter, 20-yard punt from the Chargers' 38 yard line was horrific."
   
   Thursday evening's performance makes that look spectacular:
   
   4 kicks, 28.4 yard average, 28.4 yard net.
   
   We checked the position list for punters at NFL.com, and there are any number of players available, including Zac Atterberry who had a good training camp with Chicago.


2. Having tall receivers may be something that Ben Roethlisberger wanted, but if Limas Sweed cannot ge away from a punted football then please keep him on the bench. Obviously that play could have been disastrous, and would have been if they had been playing a team with a better offense.


3. Ben Roethlisberger completed 17 of his 30 passes, and we believe that receivers dropped fourteen of those incomplete passes. For the second game in-a-row Nate Washington dropped a ball that hit him square in the hands. Santonio Holmes, after having his jersey grabbed by a defender, had the ball hit him in the chest before he dropped the pass. Hines Ward and (the usually reliable) Heath Miller each dropped at least one pass. The next five opponents have a combined record of 32-18 (a winning percentage of .640), and missed opportunities like that simply will not do.

The Bad

1. Why is it that the Steelers' offense will not take a knee when they should? After dodging a bullet following the Limas Sweed miscue Bruce Arians called a pass play? What good could have possibly come from that? Feel free to run out the clock, and head to the locker room next time.


2. Despite a good performance we want to remind Mewelde Moore that, with time running out in the game and the Steelers in possession of the ball, it is preferable that he remains in-bounds. This is not the first time a Pittsburgh running back has done that this season (as we pointed out following the game against Cleveland), and we would like to think that running back coach Kirby Wilson is delivering the same message.


3. We love the defense but Ryan Clark had what (we hope) was his worst game as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Missed tackles, poor coverage ~ he has had a Pro Bowl caliber season until now. We are sure (*fingers crossed*) he will bounce back.

The Good
(This may end up reading like the "All Redemption" team)

1. We have openly questioned Troy Polamalu. His physical ailments, we argued, were talking a toll that few others were willing to acknowledge.
   
   We stand corrected.
   
   Whether defending the run by launching his body like a missile into running backs, or tackling receivers in the open field, or picking off another pass he is back, and a force to be reckoned with.


2. A quick tip of the hat to Aaron Smith for his three deflected passes. Always one of our favorites, he continues to amaze us with his versatility


3. We have been unrelenting in our criticism of the play calling of Bruce Arians, but Thursday evening he showed us how good he can be. Sure we would like to see 100% running, but 37 rushes and 30 passes is a good mix; and more importantly the Steelers seemed more willing to stay with the run when it was working (we recall only one drive in which a relatively effective running play was followed by two unsuccessful passing plays, and a punt). Despite meager first half numbers the Steelers stayed with the run, and wore down the undermanned Bengals defense. Additionally, the short passing plays worked well, which leads us to item #2.


4. He has been roundly criticized, and some called for his benching, but Thursday night Ben Roethlisberger looked very good. With time to throw and receivers getting open he had a passer rating of 94.2 ~ his second highest such rating in his last five games (last Sunday's game was his highest in that stretch ~ 96.4). We especially liked the short passes to receivers in space who were then able to make big plays. We believe that that approach ~ i.e. get the ball to playmakers and turn them loose ~ is what good quarterbacks do. Making perfect, downfield passes should be the exception not the rule. Which leads us to item #3.


5. Yes, we criticized the receivers, but we also recognize that when they were able to hold onto the football (his second quarter catch, a completion that went for 27 yards, in which he grabbed the back end of the football was spectacular) they made things happen.


6. Last, but not least, a big shout out to the offensive line! Yes, the Bengals have a pass rush that is largely ineffectual, and yes the Cincinnati defensive line was horribly depleted, but the Steelers controlled the offensive line throughout. We were especially pleased with a play in the fourth quarter.
   
   Facing 3-and-10, Ben Roethlisberger dropped back to throw and was immediately pressured, and hit by a Bengals' defensive lineman. Mr. Roethlisberger escaped, and as he did Darnell Stapleton was there to drive that defensive lineman to the ground. That play enabled Mr. Roethlisberger to escpae to his left, and throw a 14-yard completion to Limas Sweed.
   
   We loved the determination and the refusal to quit on the play that Mr. Stapleton displayed. It really was indicative of how all the O-linemen performed Thursday; and gives us hope for the remainder of the season.

Bengals Decimated Heading into Game

Wednesday's NFL's injury report contained plenty of bad news for the Bengals and their fans:

"OUT WR Antonio Chatman (neck), DE Eric Henderson (neck), LB Abdul Hodge (elbow), T Levi Jones (back), G Scott Kooistra (knee), S Chinedum Ndukwe (foot), DE Antwan Odom (shoulder), QB Carson Palmer (right elbow), G Andrew Whitworth (ankle)"

Antonio Chatman is third on the team in receptions, is their primary punt return person, and has averaged 29.3 yards per kick off return.

Levi Jones is the starting offensive left tackle.

Andrew Whitworth is the starting offensive left guard.

Chiinedum Ndukwe is the starting strong safety.

Antwan Odom leads the Cincinnati defense in sacks.

And now comes word that Chad Johnson has been deactivated for tonight's game.

The Bengals have been playing better of late, but asking any team to overcome all of this seems a bit much. But they have always been a dangerous opponent, especially in regards to special teams ~ something the Steelers (and all their fans) would do well to keep in mind.

Cincinnati v. Steelers: The Matchups

The Steelers go into a game against an opponent that has been struggling on offense, and cannot stop the run ~ sound familiar?

The same snapshot was widely distributed leading up to the Indianapolis game, and we all know how that turned out.

Also making us a bit nervous are the following fun facts:

• On Thursday night the Steelers have a record of 4-4, are 2-1 at home, and are 3-0 in their last three.


• The most recent Thursday night loss was against ~ Cincinnati ~ on October 19, 1995. The final score was 27-9.


• Historically, the Steelers are 25-13 against the Bengals in Pittsburgh, but are only 2-2 in their most recent four games in the Steel City (the Steelers won the games in the odd number years ~ 2007 and 2005 ~ and lost the games in the even number years ~ 2006, 2004).

Never happy unless we have something about which to worry, here are this week's numbers.

Cincinnati Offense v. Steelers Defense
Average total yards per game: Cincinnati offense 32nd (242.6) v. Steelers defense 1st (237.6 )

Average net rushing yards per game: Cincinnati offense 30th (83.7) v. Steelers defense 1st (68.9)

Average net passing yards per game: Cincinnati offense 30th (158.9) v. Steelers defense 1st (168.7)

Average points per game: Cincinnati offense 31st (13.8) v. Steelers defense 2nd (15.0)

Steelers Offense v. Cincinnati Defense
Average total yards per game: Steelers offense 25th (300.2) v. Cincinnati defense 20th (337.7)

Average net rushing yards per game: Steelers offense 23rd (99.4) v. Cincinnati defense 23rd (131.1)

Average net passing yards per game: Steelers offense 18th (200.8) v. Cincinnati defense 19th (206.6)

Average points per game: Steelers offense: 23rd (20.9) v. Cincinnati defense 24th (24.9)

Special Teams
Average yards per punt return: Cincinnati 23rd (8.0) v. Steelers 30th (6.0)

Average yards allowed per punt return: Cincinnati 28th (11.7) v. Steelers 2nd (4.8)

Average yards per kick return: Cincinnati 7th (24.6) v. Steelers 31st (19.8)

Average yards allowed per kick return: Cincinnati 11th (22.2) v. Steelers 1st (19.4)

Net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 31st (33.1) v. Steelers 15th (37.4)

Opponent net yardage punting average: Cincinnati 10th (36.3) v. Steelers 25th (39.5)

Miscellaneous
Turnover differential: Cincinnati 22nd (-4) v. Steelers 20th (0)

Time of possession: Cincinnati 26th (27:48) v. Steelers 14th (30:50)

Red Zone touchdown efficiency (touchdowns): Cincinnati 23rd (50.0%) v. Steelers 4th (63.0%)

Red Zone defense (touchdowns): Cincinnati 25th (59.4%) v. Steelers 1st (34.5%)

Sacks allowed: Cincinnati 29th (35) v. Steelers 32nd (38)

Some Individual Numbers
AFC Passer rating: Ryan Fitzpatrick, 14th (71.3) v. Ben Roethlisberger, 11th (79.1)

AFC Leading rushers: Cedric Benson, 26th (283 yards) v. Willie Parker, 12th (448 yards)

Note: Chris Perry is Cincinnati's second leading rusher, 28th in the AFC, with 258 yards.

AFC Leading receivers: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 1st (73 catches, 726 yards, 9.9 per catch, 4 touchdowns) v. Hines Ward, 9th (54 catches, 685 yards, 12.7 yards per catch, 5 touchdowns)

AFC Sack Leaders: James Harrison, 2nd (12.0) v. Antwan Odom, 32nd (3.0)

Note: LaMarr Woodley is third in the AFC in sacks with 9.5.

The NFL Speaks

The National Football League has released a statement regarding the blown call on Troy Polamalu's toiuchdown at the end of the game:

"On the final play of Sunday’s game between the Chargers and Steelers, Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu returned a loose ball 12 yards for a defensive touchdown.

After an instant replay review and crew conference, the on-field ruling of touchdown was incorrectly reversed to no touchdown due to an illegal forward pass by San Diego.

There were three passes on the play. The first was a completed forward pass from San Diego’s Philip Rivers to LaDainian Tomlinson. The second, from Tomlinson to Chris Chambers, was initially ruled a legal backward pass but then reversed in replay to an illegal forward pass. The third, from Chambers, was a legal backward pass that hit the ground and was returned for the touchdown by Pittsburgh’s Polamalu.

The incorrect reversal of the on-field ruling of touchdown was acknowledged immediately following the game by referee Scott Green in the pool report interview with a representative of the media.

If any forward pass, legal or illegal, hits the ground, the play is dead immediately. The officiating crew mistakenly determined that the backward pass that Polamalu legally recovered and returned for the touchdown was the pass that was reversed in replay to being forward and illegal. Therefore, the crew ruled that the ball was dead when it hit the ground and the play was over. (The actual illegal forward pass – Tomlinson to Chambers – did not hit the ground and therefore the play is allowed to continue.)

If the situation had been handled properly, the defense (Pittsburgh) would have declined the penalty for an illegal forward pass from Tomlinson to Chambers and taken the touchdown.

The rules relevant to this particular play are as follows…

Rule 8, Section 1, Article 1 (b) states “When any illegal forward pass is caught or intercepted, the ball may be advanced and the penalty declined.” (page 49 of 2008 Official Playing Rules of the National Football League)

Rule 8, Section 1, Article 5 states “Any forward pass (legal or illegal) becomes incomplete and the ball is dead immediately if the pass strikes the ground or goes out of bounds.” (page 50 of 2008 Official Playing Rules of the National Football League)

Rule 8, Section 4, Article 1 (b) states “A defensive player may catch a backward pass or recover it after the pass touches the ground and advance.” (page 58 of 2008 Official Playing Rules of the National Football League)

The final score will remain Steelers 11, Chargers 10."

Guess we won't see Scott Green in the playoffs.

San Diego v. Steelers: The Good, the Bad, & the Ugly

We're not certain what is most noteworthy about this game ~ that the Steelers were victorious, they were victorious in the first ever 11-10 game in NFL history (so say CBS, with help from the Elias Sports Bureau we assume), or what we assume were huge sums of money that changed hands when Troy Polamalu scored a touchdown on the final play of the game; only to see all that money handed back over on the basis of an incorrect illegal forward pass call that ended the game. In our effort to decide we look at what went well, what was not so good, and what was downright horrible.

The Good

1. Big Dan the 'Burgh Man sent along a text message during the first half which said "Thank God for Dick LeBeau." Beautiful in its simplicity, yet comprehensive in capturing just how much the Steelers are depending upon their defense this season to be competitive. Philip Rivers' 43.6 passer rating was his worst such number this season (the previous low was 58.8 versus Oakland), and LaDanian Tomlinson's 57 yards rushing was his fourth worst total this season, and the team's 66 net rushing yards was their second lowest this season (the lowest is 60 yards versus Miami). Moreover, their 50 offensive plays was the third lowest total in a game this season, and their 4.3 yards per offensive play was the second lowest total this season (the lowest was 4.1 yards per play versus Miami).
   
   If this was the first time this season the Steelers' defense had done something like this we might only discuss player performance, but the season-long excellence of the defensive unit is certainly the result of leadership from their ageless leader, Dick LeBeau.


2. If James Harrison is not the defensive player of the year we simply do not understand the criteria for the award. Often double-teamed (and occasionally held, despite the lack of a call from the officials) he still managed to collect two tackles and two assists.
   
   And forced a fumble.
   
   And assisted on the tackle that resulted in a safety.
   
   And came up with a key interception that kept the Chargers off the scoreboard late in the first half (and there is no need to ask, given the final score, just how big a play that turned out to be).
   
   The intensity, bordering on rage, that he exhibited early in his career has been harnessed for good (i.e. if you are a fan of the Steelers) and he is following up a very good 2007 season with a Pro Bowl 2008.


3. During our recent visit to Pittsburgh Big Dan the 'Burgh Man and I spent a great deal of time going through the Steelers' media guide, and while doing so we discovered that Jack Lambert, arguably the greatest linebacker to play in the National Football League, waited until the end of his third full season to go to his first Pro Bowl.
   
   We mention this just so that you understand that we understand the full weight of this next statement: Second year linebacker LaMarr Woodley has earned a spot on the AFC Pro Bowl team. Sure, the Steelers' defense played reasonably well last week against Indianapolis (i.e. well enough to win); but as good as they are without him, the defense is even better with him in the lineup. He pressured the quarterback, he was in on the safety with James Harrison, and his ability to drop into coverage (e.g. the deflected pass intended for Vincy Jackson) makes him supremely valuable.


4. The defense was terrific, but there were also some good performances on the offensive side of the ball as well, but we were especially impressed by the hard running (i.e. aggressive, downhill running) of Gary Russell and Willie Parker. Tunch Ilkin mentioned it on the Steelers' radio broadcast ~ the Pittsburgh running attack is just different with a healthy Willie Parker in the lineup. We also thought Mr. Russell's contributions, especially in short yardage situations were very significant (e.g. third quarter, 3-and-1, six yard gain; third quarter, 3-and-1, four yard gain).

The Bad

1. So let's review:
   • 24 first downs
   • 410 net yards
   • 36:31 time of possession
   • +3 in turnovers
   • 8 points ?!?
   
   Five of the Steelers' nine offensive possessions terminated inside San Diego's 35 yard line, but all the offense ended up with was nine points. Execution is obviously a part of the problem, but we also have issues with the play calling.
   
   For example, on the Steelers' first offensive possession they worked their way from their own 41 yard line on a 4-yard run by Willie Parker and a 17-yard pass completion to Hines Ward (that put them at the Chargers' 38 yard line). At that point Bruce Arians called three consecutive pass plays ~ an incompletion, a sack, and a 13-yard completion on 3-and-18. That resulted in an ugly, 51-yard, missed field goal from Jeff Reed.
   
   On their second possession they moved the ball 69 yards, 33 of which was on the ground, but on a critical 2nd-and-4 at the San Diego four yard line a pass play was called and Ben Roethlisberger was sacked.
   
   On their first possession of the third quarter the Steelers moved from their own 23 yard line to the Chargers' 28 yard line (49 net yards), gaining 26 yards on the ground on five carries. Yet, with a 1-and-10 at that point, they called three consecutive passing plays (completing the first one for five yards, and the other two were incomplete) and had to settle for another field goal.
   
   We understand the need for a balanced offense, however we also believe in forcing an opponent to stop you before going to something else. On a day when the running game was closer to being a ground attack it seems that Mr. Arians more interested in balance than simply going with what was working.


2. We sing the praises of the defense often, but allowing San Diego to go 78 yards in the fourth quarter . . . u-n-a-c-c-e-p-t-a-b-l-e.

The Ugly

1. Paul Ernster has to go.
   
   Four kicks, a 31.0 yard average, and a net of 30.8 yards. His average is tied for lowest so far this weekend (with only the Monday evening game remaining), and his net is the second lowest (Indianapolis punter Hunter Smith had a single punt with a net of 16 yards). He has done a good job holding for field goals, but his fourth quarter, 20-yard punt from the Chargers' 38 yard line was horrific.


2. 13 penalties, 115 yards.
   
   Yes, we thought the pass interference call against Ike Taylor (that set up San Diego's touchdown) was ridiculous (if that is pass interference then the rule needs to be changed), and referee Scott Green has already admitted his error on Troy Polamalu's fumble recovery for a touchdown; but our real problem is with the sloppy, sloppy play the Steelers turned in.
   
   Nearly a quarter of the Steelers' penalties were called on wide receivers (three on Hines Ward, one on Santonio Holmes), and two more were called on tight ends (one each on Matt Spaeth and Sean McHugh). In fact, only two penalties were called on offensive linemen (one on Willie Colon and one on Darnell Stapleton) and neither was for holding.
   
   All of this was nearly the undoing of the Steelers, and it is a testament to the good play of the offensive line and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger that they were able to overcome it all.

First Down, the Most Important of All?

Perhaps it was because we were at the game, but last Sunday we walked away from Heinz Field with the distinct impression that the Steelers' offense was particularly ineffectual on first down ~ i.e. they were constantly faced with second- and third-and-long situations. So we decided to take a look at first down performance last Sunday and compare it with the other games the Steelers have played this season.

A brief disucssion regarding our methodology seems appropriate:

• We used the official NFL Gamebooks for our information on plays run by the Steelers on first downs this season.


• The great folks at Football Outsiders assess the success of a play based upon how much yardage was picked-up relative to the yardage to go for a first down or touchdown. We like that metric, but instead of a percentage we wanted to see the average distance remaining. So, by that standard, a play on 1-10 that gained 32 yards is a -22 (meaning that negatives are good). An average at or below zero is desirable (i.e. no yards remaining for a first down), and a first down play that gains three yards from the opponent's three yard line (i.e. scores a touchdown) does not negatively impact the average.


• Finally, we noted whether a play was a running play or passing play.

Here's what the first down numbers look like:

Opponent	W or L	# of Runs	# of Passes	Average Gain
Houston	W	20	4	4.04
Cleveland	W	17	5	5.73
Philadelphia	L	6	18	3.64
Baltimore	W	16	6	2.50
Jacksonville	W	14	16	8.40
Cincinnati	W	12	13	4.52
N.Y. Giants	L	9	12	5.10
Washington	W	16	7	4.22
Indianapolis	L	15	12	2.85

We're not exactly certain what this tells us ~ certainly our perception that first downs versus the Colts were not productive is born out by the numbers; and would any one have expected the Colts' defense to have performed as capably as Baltimore's (we were amazed by the performance versus Jacksonville. On that night the Steelers' offense had 12 first down plays of 10 yards or more, including a 48-yard touchdown pass)?

Having said that we get the general sense that running more leads to better results, but the Steelers have won games in which they passed more than the ran, and lost games in which they ran more than they passed so if there is any correlation it is a weak one.

We heard a comment recently that third down was the most important down in football ~ we will check that and let you know what we find out.